Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3837 · SMF → SNA
departs 8:45 PM PT · arrives 10:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 12%
Thu 10/8 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.