Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3857 · SNA → PHX
departs 8:45 PM PT · arrives 10:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +27 pts in 24h
+27 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.