Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 3860 · SNA → SJC
departs 9:55 AM PT · arrives 11:10 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 8%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into SJC at that hour are usually not late
↓
SJC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.