Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 3871 · SNA → SMF
departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 5:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.