Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3873 · SNA → SMF
departs 8:45 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.