Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3892 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 3892 · STL → BOS

departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 6:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ STL is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.68 in

BOS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3892 · STL → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?