Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3973 LANDED 7:59 PM PT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 3973 · SMF → SEA

took off 6:38 PM PT · landed 7:59 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3973 · SMF → SEA

Odds over time