Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4004 · TPA → BNA
departs 2:05 PM ET · arrives 3:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 36%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.