Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4005 LANDED 9:44 PM CT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 4005 · DEN → MCI

took off 7:34 PM MT · landed 9:44 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4005 · DEN → MCI

Odds over time