Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4010
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4010 · TPA → BWI
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 12:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
15%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
15%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.58 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.