Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4021 · DAL → LGA
departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 8:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 41%
Fri 10/9 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
64%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 62% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.24 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.