Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4033
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4033 · TPA → MDW
departs 10:45 AM ET · arrives 12:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.