Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 404 · SAT → LAX
departs 1:05 PM CT · arrives 2:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 1.83 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.