Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4057
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4057 · TUL → MDW
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 6:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 4%
Sun 10/4 2%
Mon 10/5 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at TUL that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.