Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4075
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4075 · BWI → CLE
departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±2 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
CLE (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.