Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4078
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4078 · RNO → LAS
departs 4:15 PM PT · arrives 5:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.