Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 407 · LAS → FAT
departs 10:50 PM PT · arrives 12:10 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.