Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4091
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4091 · MDW → BNA
departs 9:40 PM CT · arrives 11:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,633 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.