Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4096
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4096 · DEN → SMF
departs 3:50 PM MT · arrives 5:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.