Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4100
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4100 · MDW → MEM
departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 11:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 26%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MEM that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.77 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.