Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4102
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4102 · PHX → SJC
departs 2:40 PM MT · arrives 4:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.