Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4110
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4110 · MDW → BUF
departs 7:05 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.