Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4118
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4118 · MTJ → DEN
departs 8:00 AM MT · arrives 9:15 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave MTJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MTJ
Weather at each end
MTJ (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.