Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4140
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4140 · MDW → ATL
departs 6:50 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.