Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4154 · BUF → MDW
departs 7:35 AM ET · arrives 8:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.