Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 416 · ATL → SAT
departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.