Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4172 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4172 · DAL → AUS

departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 10:00 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late

↓ 9am departures from DAL are usually not late

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.24 in

AUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4172 · DAL → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?