Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 418 · SMF → BOI
departs 1:20 PM PT · arrives 3:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 8%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at BOI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BOI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
1pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.