Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4195 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4195 · SAT → DAL

departs 11:45 AM CT · arrives 12:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±7 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↓ 11am departures from SAT are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.70 in

DAL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4195 · SAT → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?