Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4196 · STL → DAL
departs 9:45 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−25 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −25 pts in 24h
−25 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.