Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4197
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4197 · MKE → LAS
departs 6:10 AM CT · arrives 8:00 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,360 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.