Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4198 · SAN → OAK
departs 7:15 AM PT · arrives 8:50 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 4%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−35 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −35 pts in 24h
−35 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −23 pts in 24h
−23 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at OAK that day
↑
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.