Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4202 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4202 · PHL → MDW

departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 567 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4202 · PHL → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?