Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4207
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4207 · AUS → MSY
departs 3:10 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.