Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4209
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4209 · SDF → BWI
departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 6:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.89 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.