Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4212 LANDED 9:27 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 4212 · TUS → LAS

took off 8:33 PM MT · landed 9:27 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

67% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at TUS that day

Weather at each end

TUS (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4212 · TUS → LAS

Odds over time