Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4221 · MDW → RDU
departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 28%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.