Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4232
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4232 · BWI → RSW
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 27%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
RSW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.