Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4268
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4268 · LAS → GEG
departs 10:10 PM PT · arrives 12:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GEG (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.