Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4279
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4279 · MDW → DSM
departs 10:05 PM CT · arrives 11:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Arrivals into DSM at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at MDW that day
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
DSM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.