Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4281 · MKE → BWI
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
41%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.