Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4286 · BNA → MDW
departs 8:25 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.04 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.