Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4292
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4292 · SMF → SAN
departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 6:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 41%
Mon 10/5 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.