Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4316
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4316 · OMA → MDW
departs 8:20 AM CT · arrives 9:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↓
8am departures from OMA are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.