Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4404 · MCO → SAT
departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 42%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Thu 10/8 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.55 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.