Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4415 · DAL → SAT
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
72%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
72%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
72%
Yes 72%
No 28%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.90 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.