Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4419 · MSY → DAL
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
2pm departures from MSY are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.