Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4420 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4420 · HOU → SLC

departs 2:40 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from HOU are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at HOU that day

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.25 in

SLC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4420 · HOU → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?