Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4431 · BNA → RDU
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 11:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 20%
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.