Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4433 · BWI → ATL
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 8:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 12%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.